← Kobold's Keep Store Championship 1/19/2026
Water FractalTier 1
at Kobold's Keep Store Championship 1/19/2026
decks
1
(11.1% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
4
2-2-0
overall winrate
50.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
52.8%
avg ELO +1.8 per match
expected value
52.0%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
52.6%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill · average
mean ELO 1199
· median 1199
· range 1199–1199
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1155
Q1 1196
Q3 1228
1430
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Shadowstrike | 22.2% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.6% | +13.7 |
| Fire Aggro | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Exia | 11.1% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 61.1% | +17.8 |
| Horse and Taxes | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 42.9% | -11.4 |
| Wind Neos | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.9% | -12.9 |
| Wind Seiryuu | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Fractal decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
